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Month: December 2015

Morning Report New Years Eve Thursday 31 December 2015

by james Carter

Good morning everyone as we say goodbye to 2015 Overview The ASX200 has so far rallied 9 out of 9 days for a very impressive 409 point / 8.3% gain……..who had no faith in the Christmas rally? – see charts 1 & 2. With the Dow falling 117 points overnight it may be too much for 10 out of 10 but with today’s ½ day trading being the end of the month, quarter and calendar year anything is possible! Turning to the Markets Looking at the S&P500, it is still ~3% below both its all-time and 2015 high – see charts 2a & 2b. Market Matters continues to believe that the US markets will see one final high in coming weeks before entering a significant correction phase. Following on from yesterday’s report, “the dates of the December highs since the GFC are 31st, 23rd, 12th, 28th, 31st and 30th so it’s going to be another 30th or 31st for 2015”; so in keeping with the possibility that yesterday might have been ‘the high’ we recommended lightening some exposure to the market. We will now be watching the market very carefully. · Yesterday Market Matters recommending cutting 50% of Ansell positions around $21.60,

Afternoon Report New Years Eve 31 December 2015

by james Carter

  • The ASX 200 index tried hard to finish the day in the black, but succumb to selling for the final day of 2015. The index finished down 24 points (-0.5%) to 5,296. For the year it finished down 2.1%.
  • The continued strength in Iron Ore failed to inspire the miners, with BHP Billiton (BHP) down 23c to $17.86 and RIO Tinto (RIO) down just 7c to $44.71.
  • The banks all closed marginally lower, yet with little change, CBA closed down 4c at $85.53.

Happy New Year’s all, we wish you a Healthy and Prosperous New Year!

Morning Report Wednesday 30 December 2015

by james Carter

Good morning everyoneOverviewA number of people questioned Market Matters’ prediction for a strong late Christmas rally BUT today the futures are predicting the ASX200 will open over 5300, a fresh high for December! The Dow has closed up 192 points and the local SPI futures are calling the ASX200 to open ~5310, that’s an 8.1% rally in 9 days!Turning to The MarketsAs has been discussed, the dates of the December highs since the GFC are 31st, 23rd, 12th, 28th, 31st and 30th so it’s going to be another 30th or 31st for 2015 – see charts 1a & 1b.When statistics are this correlated they should not be ignored; it’s a shame that January is more random.Looking at the US, the S&P500 is now less than 3% below both its all-time and 2015 high – see charts 2a & 2b. Market Matters believes the US market will see one final high in coming weeks before entering a significant correction phase.The intention is to keep reports short over the Christmas break updating the above theme BUT you can never assume anything with stock markets!

Afternoon Report Wednesday 30 December 2015

by james Carter

  • The ASX 200 performed well today following on from last night’s strong move in the U S markets. The index finished up 52 points (+1%) to 5,319.
  • The banks were the stand out today with some strong buying pushing the sector up 1.5%. Westpac Bank (WBC) was the strongest of the majors, up 64c (1.9%) to $33.66. National Australia Bank was a bit further back, up 42c (+1.4%) to $30.33. Australia New Zealand Bank (ANZ) closed up 33c (+1.2%) to $27.96, whilst Commonwealth Bank (CBA) closed the day up $1.07 (+1.3%) to $85.57.
  • The Resources were still lagging the market, even after a relatively better night in Iron Ore and Oil, as Oil lost 1.9% in Asian trade today. BHP Billiton (BHP) closed down 2c to (-0.1%) $18.09 after hitting a low of $17.90, whilst RIO Tinto (RIO) finished up only 1c to $44.78 after a low of $44.34.

Best Sector – Health Care
Worst Sector – Materials

Morning Report 29 December 2015

by james Carter

Good morning everyone! Overview Well, Christmas has passed, New Year’s Eve is looming on Thursday and it feels like the ASX200 is limping home like the battered Sydney to Hobart yachts, currently down ~4% for the year. After reading this morning that Australia has underperformed its global rivals every year for the last decade and Venezuela was the best performing index in 2015, it’s clear to see why local investors need all the help they can get. Market Matters feels it is ideally positioned to help investors in coming years and looking forward to announcing some exciting additions to our team in coming weeks. Turning to the Markets As has been discussed over past weeks, this week is likely to be a low volume affair which, as a result, can cause overall increased market volatility meaning that investors should be on their guard for potentially significant price movements. Recently we have emphasised the dates of the December highs since the GFC i.e. 31st, 23rd, 12th, 28th, 31st and 30th hence a few more days of strength would not surprise. Also lets now look at the January highs during the “this kind of bull market” since the GFC i.e. 5th, 2nd, 31st, 27th, 19th and 11th; clearly there is no specific pattern for January (unlike December). There have been no significant leads from overseas markets since the ASX200 closed for the Christmas break so the next few days will be interesting. Market Matters overall view has not changed with our Sellers Hat on as we look to reduce our portfolio over coming weeks. The intention is to keep reports short over the Christmas / New Year break updating the above theme BUT you can never assume anything with stock markets! Summary Market Matters still believes the US bull market from 2009 will end in coming weeks putting renewed pressure on the Australian market. * Watch closely for Market Matters alerts via SMS and email. 1 ASX200 Weekly Chart

Afternoon Report Tuesday 29 December 2015

by james Carter

  • The ASX 200 outperformed the US from overnight, rallying 1.2% higher to 5,267 with the banks leading the charge.
  • National Australia Bank (NAB) was the leader of the bank pack, rallying 1.8% higher to $29.91, while Commonwealth Bank (CBA) closed 1.4% higher at $84.50.
  • The telcos were broadly higher; Telstra (TLS) rallied 1.3% higher at $5.53, while Vocus Communications (VOC) closed 1.2% higher at $7.43.
  • Although BHP closed 1.3% lower at $18.11, it has performed better than in US overnight and see good support around these levels. Oil will obviously remain a concern, however.
  • Again, we expect this week’s session to occur with very little volume.

Best Sector – Consumer Staples
Worst Sector – Materials

Afternoon Report Christmas Eve 2015

by james Carter

  • It was a quiet and short session in the ASX 200 today; however we managed to rally 65 points higher (+1.3%) on Christmas Eve and closed at 5,207.
  • The Materials had a good day today, BHP closed 5.3% higher at $18.34, while Fortescue (FMG) closed 5% higher at $1.88.
  • The Banks all supported the broader market, with the big four banks up an average of 1.4%. Commonwealth Bank (CBA) was the strongest link, ending its day up 1.6% at $83.32.
  • The Industrial sector was the only sector down today and only .001% down while the Christmas rally was positive for all other sectors

· We wish you a Happy Festive Season!

Morning Report Christmas Eve 2015

by james Carter

Christmas Eve has arrived and the market is making Market Matters recent forecasts look very good to date:

Afternoon Report Wednesday 23rd December 2015

by james Carter

  • A choppy day was experienced in the ASX 200 today, with investors endeavouring to hold the March SPI futures above the 5.100 level and the broader ASX 200 near the 5,150 area.
  • The ASX 200 closed 25 points higher (+0.5%) at 5,142, with the Iron Ore names being the contributors to the positive close.
  • BHP Billiton (BHP) started to move higher today and broke a short term barrier in the high $17.40’s ending 3.5% higher at $17.41, while RIO closed 4.2% higher at $44.00.
  • Another landmine was triggered, this time with Aurizon Holding (AZJ) ending 11.7% lower at $4.36 after updating its investors with its guidance and book impairment charges.
  • Please note the market closes at 2:00PM tomorrow.

Best Sector – Materials
Worst Sector – Industrials

Morning Report Wednesday 23rd December 2015

by james Carter

2015 has been a fairly tricky, choppy year for equities as the bull market that commenced in the depths of the GFC matures. The Australian market has unfortunately suffered due to some major internal issues in two major sectors of our market, with the banks hindered by regulatory headwinds while the miners have been hit by falling commodity prices. Interestingly, industrial stocks have performed well adding +13.5% incl dividends, however in aggregate the ASX200 is currently down 5.4% for the calendar year. Conversely for the same period the US S&P500 is down only 1% and the EuroStoxx is up 2.2% – see charts 1 & 3.Now below let’s look at two stocks that focus on these two respective overseas regions and give our view as to what we would do if we held them:

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