Month: March 2015
• It was a choppy session, with the ASX 200 trading on its day highs this morning, only to retreat and close 4 points higher at 5973.• It seemed only banking sector could hold the market in positive territory, with the big 4 banks ending higher and ANZ and NAB closing at all-time highs! ANZ +0.8% at $37.19 and National Australia Bank (NAB) +0.9% at $39.29.• The Oil sector also retreated after trading in positive territory this morning. Santos (STO) closed 0.7% lower at $7.34 and Woodside (WPL) down 0.9% at $35.10.• The Consumer Discretionary sector also performed well, with Myer (MYR) rallying 4.4% at $1.415.
Further evidence that we may see a bounce in Oil & Iron Ore stocks
• The ASX 200 took a breather and had a relatively quiet day today, ending only 13 points higher at 5969.• The Banking sector closed mixed, National Australia Bank (NAB) closed 0.6% at $38.95 while ANZ Bank closed 0.2% higher at $36.89.• In the commodities sector, RIO Tinto (RIO) closed 1.4% lower at $57.37 while Fortescue Metals (FMG) rallied as high as 4.5% prior to closing 1.5% higher at $2.01 while Santos (STO) rallied 1.4% at $7.39. Please see our comments in this morning’s report.• The Gold sector continues to shine – Newcrest Mining (NCM) ended 2.6% higher at $13.75 and Regis Resources (RRL) up 4.7% at $1.335.• Spotless Group (SPO) rallied 7.3% at $2.36 after Private Equity, Pacific Equity Partners sold 104M of its shares at $2.21 a share, still retaining an 18.9% stake in SPO.
Clarifying my thoughts on the Australian “Big Four” Banks
• The ASX 200 experienced a choppy session, ending the day 19 points lower (-0.3%) at 5956, unable to reach the 6000 level this morning.• The Banking sector closed lower, with Commonwealth Bank (CBA) down 0.9% at $95.48 and regional, Bendigo & Adelaide Bank (BEN) down 0.9% at $12.90.• The Gold Sector rallied as expected, with Newcrest (NCM) up 3.5% at $13.40 and Regis Resources (RRL) up 1.6% at $1.275.• BHP Billiton (BHP) outperformed its Iron Ore peers, ending 1.1% higher at $31.00 while Rio Tinto (RIO) closed 0.7% lower at $58.21.• On the Retail Sector, Premier Investments (PMV) soared 11.1% at $12.54 after announcing a 9% increase in its first half net profit, alongside with a dividend of 21c a share, PLUS a special dividend of 9c a share.
After watching the ASX200 surge 108 points (1.86%) yesterday, I enjoyed both the paper returns and increased my confidence around my 6200 target for coming weeks/months – see chart 1. The important issues at hand now are how we invest/trade from here and lessons to be learnt from recent moves in equities. Remember, the day you stop learning is the day you start regressing.I wrote a morning report recently that statistically illustrated why investors/traders should buy strong stocks going up and not weak ones falling hard. Yesterday, this was illustrated perfectly and simply, by Myer (MYR) and Commonwealth Bank (CBA):
• The ASX 200 closed 25 points higher today at 5976 and up 2.8% for the week.• Commonwealth Bank (CBA) never ceases to amaze investors and traders, again closing at record highs, up 0.7% at $96.32 after touching $94.60.• Macquarie (MQG) rallied 1.6% higher at $77.90 after trading as low as $75.93• Please watch out for the Hickman Report Tomorrow.
At 5am this morning, Janet Yellen – Chairwoman of the US Federal Reserve – gave the world some significant insight into the timing of interest rate rises in the US – note interest rate rise, not cuts. As anticipated, the Fed dropped the word “patient” from its policy statement, opening the door for a rate rise in June. However she added two very strong qualifying statements to ease market’s fears that led to a 227-point (1.27%) rally from the DOW.
• The market roared from the opening bell today, the ASX200 closed 109 points higher (+1.9%) at 5951.• The banking sector rallied and outperformed the market, with 3 of the big 4 banks making fresh new highs as we had anticipated in recent reports. ANZ closed 2% higher at $36.63 after hitting all-time highs at $36.68, Commonwealth Bank (CBA) up 2.4% at $95.61 after hitting all-time highs at $95.80 and Westpac (WBC) up 2.7% at $39.71 after hitting all-time highs at $39.72.• A landmine was set this morning, Myer (MYR) closed 10.1% lower at $1.375 after reporting its 1H 2015 net profit, -23% on the year and below analysts’ estimates.• Fortescue Metals (FMG) rallied 6.7% at $1.99, outperforming its Iron Ore peers today.• The gold sector closed had a solid performance today, with Newcrest Mining (NCM) up 6.5% at $13.30.
A massive individual share move as the ASX200 ponders direction
Really bullish, there's more to go in the reflation rally
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