Month: April 2014
After yesterday’s 100 point intraday plunge has the ASX200 we topped?
The ASX200 again saw volatility today, trading in a 44pt range only to close +2 points.
If you had invested in Australian large resource stocks over recent years the picture is very bleak, even during a commodities boom (the smaller stocks have generally faired worse!). Below illustrates their clear underperformance against the banks since the highs of 2007- 2008, ignoring any dividend returns that clearly favour the banks. Chart 1 illustrates the massive divergence that has occurred over the last few years:
The ASX200 traded hit its highs early in the session, up 26 points, only to be sold off for the remainder of the day to post a -0.9% decline to 5,487 points. The futures actually fell -96 points intraday.
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The ASX200 had a choppy session today, closing up 5 points, after hitting an intraday high of +17 points.
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The ASX200 closed more-or-less flat on low volumes, adding just 5 points to end +0.1% higher at 5,523.
Both ANZ and Westpac (WBC) traded at all-time highs yesterday, whilst CBA is my far off. NAB remains the laggard, in line with the last 7 years. Interestingly, I can see NAB being the best performer of the big four over the next 5 years. The price action for the banks is unfolding as I have anticipated, but my next call to start selling down holdings is out of sync with the recent years for the ASX200 and a major portfolio change, as I believe investors will start focusing on increasing interest rates in years ahead. I have been quoting the below repeatedly for the last few weeks:
The ASX200 continued its recent strength, closing up 38 points or +0.7% at 5,517, led by the banking sector with ANZ again hitting all-time highs +0.9% at $34.59 and WBC +0.9% to $35.62.
Really bullish, there's more to go in the reflation rally
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