Weekend Q&A: Fears of a US recession drive ASX shares lower

It was another tough week for local stocks, with the ASX200 closing down another 2%, extending the aggressive pullback to 10.2%, the market’s largest 4-week decline since 2020. Eight of the eleven mainboard sectors declined, spearheaded by the tech, healthcare, consumer discretionary, and financial sectors, all of which fell over 3%. Performance reversion was again the main game in town, with the resources performing well at the expense of many high-flyers over the last year.

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Morning report 18/06/2025 09:31

Portfolio Positioning: Fears increase that the US will join the Middle East conflict

The ASX200 slipped 0.1% on Tuesday as uncertainty around the Middle East increased following some confusing and contradictory comments from President Trump et al, leading to a ~0.6% slide by the US S&P 500 futures, surrendering most of Monday's advance in the process.

Afternoon report 17/06/2025 16:56

The Match Out: ASX drifts lower as Geopolitical tensions escalate

The ASX came off the boil as the day progressed, tracking lower into the close, ending ~30pts below the daily high. Not an aggressive move in any stretch and we’re clearly not seeing a lot of panic, however, when we stand back and look at stocks only a few percent below all-time highs and overlay that with Trumps call to evacuate Tehran, pushing up Oil prices, our bias is to err on the side of selectively reducing market exposure in the short term – the risk/reward has become less appealing, we think.

Morning report 17/06/2025 09:55

What Matters Today: Is it too late to buy the Energy Sector?

The ASX200 surprised many on Monday, managing to eke out a small gain even after the Dow tumbled over 760 points on Friday night, although it helped that US futures bounced ~0.5% during our trading session. It certainly hasn’t taken long for the Middle East conflict to join other recent geopolitical & macroeconomic events in being ignored by stocks, as fears of missing out on further strength remain a greater concern to many fund managers.

Afternoon report 16/06/2025 17:31

The Match Out: ASX flat, Energy stocks soar while Gold wobbles

A very interesting session today for the ASX despite a small move at the index level. Escalation in the Israel/Iran conflict underpinned a str0ng move higher for energy stocks, with a bid for Santos (STO) thrown in the mix for good measure.

Morning report 16/06/2025 09:44

Macro Monday: Tensions in the Middle set to dominate markets in June

In the past, last week's outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Iran was the kind of geopolitical flashpoint that might have triggered a full-blown market meltdown. Yet, so far, in a year where crises have come in waves, primarily courtesy of Trump 2.0, traders from London to New York have opted to hold their breath rather than flee en masse.

Weekend report 15/06/2025 08:27

Weekend Q&A: Israel-Iran conflict awakens the Bear

Even after slipping 0.2% on Friday, following Israel's attack on Iran, the ASX200 managed to finish last week up +0.1%, posting its 5th consecutive weekly gain - overall impressive considering the unfolding conflict. Israel’s airstrikes on Iran added a fresh wave of uncertainty among investors, following closely on the heels of Trump's promise that he intends to impose unilateral tariffs on dozens of US trading partners in the coming weeks. A weekend is a long-time when conflict breaks out, but whatever unfolds in the Middle East over the coming days/weeks, it’s likely to test the mettle of the current bull market and potentially provide an opportunity to buy weakness for the 2H of 2025:

Afternoon report 13/06/2025 17:22

The Match Out: Middle East conflict sparks risk-off selling as Energy & Gold stocks jump higher

The local market was lined up for a positive and potentially quiet session with a lack of earnings or corporate news on the docket and positive sentiment from U.S markets overnight with ASX futures pointing up +46pts at 8am - it was anything but, as news broke shortly after the market opened that airstrikes were carried out by Israel on Iranian nuclear missile sites.

Morning report 13/06/2025 10:06

What Matters Today: Around the World with 7 ETFs’

The ASX 200 surrendered early gains as “Trump tariff talk” weighed on the already “stretched” market. Ever since he's heard the “TACO” phrase, the president has been talking a lot tougher. Only time will tell if the acronym is true or not, i.e. “Trump Always Chickens Out”.

Afternoon report 12/06/2025 17:09

The Match Out: ASX fails to launch, awaits U.S-China trade deal confirmation

Despite a U.S-China trade deal now all but done, global markets overnight and the local index today are apprehensive to move higher - the ASX tried its best to break out but ran out of steam without the specifics of the deal and both sides yet to officially sign off.

Morning report 12/06/2025 16:31

What Matters Today: Can the Supermarkets emulate the Big Four Banks?

Wednesday saw the ASX 200 post a fresh all-time high at 8639 before reversing most of the early morning gains to close back below the psychological 8600 barrier.