Archives: Reports
Yesterday the market was weak on open and rallied, today the opposite played out, strong on open before tapering off throughout the day implying indecision remains. Banks hit their highs in the morning, Resources were mixed, though Energy, led by Uranium stocks fired up after a tough period.
A quick chemistry lesson: The rare earth elements (REE) are seventeen metallic elements, which are categorised into Light Rare Earths (lanthanum to samarium) and Heavy Rare Earths (europium to lutetium). Rare-earth elements (REE) are necessary for more than 200 products across various applications, especially high-tech consumer products, such as mobile phones, computer hard drives, electric and hybrid vehicles, flat-screen monitors and televisions. The REE market is valued at $US6.0 bn in 2024 and is projected to increase to $US10.9 bn by 2029.
The excuse for Friday’s sell-off was about a poor labour market print, however, non-farms barely missed the mark, consistent with cooling and normalisation as opposed to an economy on the cusp of recession, which is how the market seemed to interpret it. In any case, we continue to expect heightened volatility through September as the market lurches from data point to data point.
US stocks were hit on Friday night after a weak Jobs Report increased fears that the Fed is behind the curve with interest rate cuts. This leads to an increased chance of their economy slipping into a recession, as opposed to the “Goldilocks Scenario,” which investors have embraced through most of 2024. It reminds us of going back to school and the dreaded Calculus, particularly a sinusoidal wave with the top being the “Goldilocks Scenario” and the bottom a recession. US equities have been ignoring several leading indicators over recent months, but the bears came home to roost on Friday night.
The ASX200 slipped 1% last week, with Wednesday’s +150-point plunge dominating the five days. Again, the rate-sensitive banks, real estate, and tech sectors stemmed the losses, but the broad market fell, with the sellers again paying particular attention to China-facing stocks. Last night, recession fears hit US tech and consumer discretionary sectors the hardest; the real estate stocks held firm on interest rate hopes, illustrating the fascinating landscape ahead into Christmas – it would catch traders off guard if China growth sentiment trumped that of the US into 2025, its certainly at a low point today!
Just one those weeks! Glad to see the back of it where our portfolio positioning in our Growth Portfolio was put under pressure. Too heavy in resources at a time of global growth worries, too slow to dial it back and now we need to take a deep breath because selling/reducing exposure after the horse has bolted is a rarely a good move. As we wrote during the week, if we didn’t have the positions we do, we’d be stepping up to the plate, however, prudent portfolio management means we can only go so far.
The local Financials index looks great at first glance, but it contains the “Big Four” banks, which have been charging ahead since late 2023. When we look under the hood of the diversified financials, it’s been a mixed year for the sector, which was exemplified by the 11% drop by Challenger (CGF) yesterday following Apollo’s $530mn sell-down. In general, traditional fund managers have struggled while insurers and more new-age stocks have rallied. This morning, we’ve looked at three of our top picks as we consider what/where to increase exposure to the space into a period of market weakness.
A reasonable session today, after an aggressive sell-off yesterday swept through the ASX, and while IT topped the boards, Real-Estate stocks caught our eye with brokers starting to turn more positive on the sector, arguably a bit late, but we agree with the view
The ASX200 was hammered yesterday, losing over 150-points and retracing over 30% of August’s recovery in one fell swoop – a classic case of up by the stairs and down by the elevator. Losses were broad-based, with all 11 sectors and over 90% of stocks closing lower, a bad day at the office being an understatement. The influential banks and resources followed the negative lead from the US, with all eyes now turning to Friday’s US Jobs report; if it comes in poor, we may be in store for a repeat of early August as recession fears mount. US credit markets are already pricing in one 0.25% rate cut this month (with the possibility of 0.5% in play) and a full 1% by Christmas.
A tough day for Aussie stocks, resources and energy companies in particular as global growth fears resurfaced overnight on the back of a softer-than-expected manufacturing read in the US. Worth bearing in mind that markets had pushed up hard into the end of August so some unwind of the month-end window dressing no doubt played a part, however, with 91% of ASX 200 stocks finishing in the red, there were not many places to hide.
