Harvey Norman Ltd (ASX: HVN) $4.60

HVN is one of the last stocks to report results, due out on the 1^st September.

Positives

• HVN is trading on the cheap side of history although not meaningfully so.
• Forecast to yield ~6% fully franked over the next 12-months.
• MM doesn’t believe the RBA will hike rates again in 2026.

Negatives

• HVN is heavily exposed to big retail items that people buy when they buy new homes.
• HVN valuation is linked to retail and property, both of which are under pressure.
• Sentiment is likely to remain tainted after yesterday’s disappointing report from JBH and the knock-on 4.6% drop by HVN.

HVN is in the cross currents of two negative themes – a weak consumer and falling property prices, making it hard not to imagine HVN trading at a deeper discount to its historical valuation.

• We wouldn’t be surprised to see HVN test $4 in 2026, another 10-15% lower.