Crude has opened down ~5% this morning on “less bullish” news: OPEC+ approved another +188,000 b/d quota increase for September, the sixth consecutive monthly hike, completing the full unwind of the 1.65 million b/d voluntary cuts made in 2023, and President Trump announced on Sunday he was cancelling planned new strikes on Iran after Tehran and regional powers indicated they are working toward a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The risks are skewed on the downside as we commence August but it will take time for traders and investors alike to believe that a resolution to the damaging conflict can be lasting.
- We can see crude oil rotating in the US$80-100 region over the coming weeks as the US-Iran conflict plays out.
MM is neutral towards Brent Crude around US$90
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