US 10 v 2-Year Bond Yield

11/09/2023

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Afternoon report 27/07/2026

The Match Out: ASX surges on deescalation, Discounting at Myer hits margins

The ASX kicked off the new week in fine form that to a pause in US-Iran strikes, putting some probability back on diplomacy. The early spike higher as US Futures rallied was held and built on as the day progressed. Oil traded down 6%, bond yields fell ~10bps and the US was sold, pushing the AUD back up through US70c.

Morning report 27/07/2026

Macro Monday: Can earnings growth trump rate risks into year-end?

US credit markets are the most hawkish they’ve been in the last 2 years, pricing in one and probably two 0.25% rate hikes by Christmas - not that long since their last rate cut by 0.25% in Dec’25, the final move in an aggressive 1.75% easing cycle. Markets have increased rate hike expectations this month following hawkish Fed signals, renewed inflation concerns from higher oil prices, and rising long-term bond yields as heavy government borrowing increased. A cooler-than-anticipated inflation print (CPI) earlier in the month helped, but the oil price quickly became the overriding factor.