Trade Uncertainty Index – Source Bloomberg

07/04/2025

Trade Uncertainty Index – Source Bloomberg

Latest Reports

Afternoon report 06/10/2026

The Match Out: ASX continues its bounce as REITs and Materials drive gains

The ASX moved higher for a third straight session with some confidence returning to the market. The rally was driven by a very different mix of stocks to what we saw on Wall Street overnight, with Real Estate leading despite bond-yields remaining elevated, and Materials also looking strong. Technology was the only significant detractor, failing to mirror the move seen overnight in the US as the tech-focused Nasdaq surged to new all-time highs.

Morning report 06/10/2026

Macro Monday, on a Tuesday: Bond yields continue to weigh on stocks

The financial press keeps telling us that stocks are expensive and a correction is inevitable, yet US markets remain within 1% of new all-time highs. The chart below tells an interesting story about the two factors pulling the S&P 500 in opposite directions through 2026. Blended forward EPS estimates have surged 35% since year-end, reflecting strong corporate earnings, particularly across AI-related companies, yet the index itself is up only +11.8%.