Interest rate expectations

12/08/2025

Interest rate expectations

Latest Reports

Afternoon report 28/09/2026

The Match Out: ASX firms ahead of RBA decision, Northern Star (NST) rejects Gold Fields bid

The local index bounced strongly this morning, recovering from a three-month low on Friday, poking its head above the 8700 level before giving most of it back through the afternoon. The modest gain was driven by banks and defensives rather than a broad-based recovery and while Financials, Healthcare and Utilities looked solid, higher oil prices and bond yields kept Technology and Materials under pressure ahead of tomorrow's RBA decision.

Morning report 28/09/2026

Macro Monday: The RBA are set to hike on Tuesday, then what?

The Fed and RBA have taken different paths in the last few years, but both have ultimately started tightening again. The Fed began 2024 with rates at 5.25%-5.5%, cut aggressively by a total of 175bps to 3.5%-3.75% by December 2025, then paused as inflation pressures returned before hiking 25bps to 3.75%-4.0% earlier this month. In contrast, the RBA waited until February 2025 to start cutting and delivered just 75bps of easing, taking the cash rate from 4.35% to a low of 3.60% by August 2025. It's been hard work of late for local investors with higher interest rates and lower earnings growth: