Implied Path of RBA Rate Cuts in 2025

10/02/2025

Implied Path of RBA Rate Cuts in 2025

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Afternoon report 08/09/2026

The Match Out: ASX drops to a six-week low as rate hike fears bite

The ASX had a rough one today, falling to its lowest close in six weeks in what was the index's biggest daily fall since June. The sell-off was broad as rising oil prices, weak consumer sentiment and increasingly hawkish RBA expectations weighed on sentiment. There was no lead from Wall St overnight which was closed, and the lull in company-specific news flow continued post reporting season. The rate story was the key drag — RBA assistant governor Sarah Hunter flagged the Board may need to lift rates again if inflation proves stronger than forecast, pushing the market-implied chance of a September hike to around 69%, while November is now fully priced while Westpac joined the other big four banks in calling for another hike.