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Afternoon report 21/07/2026

The Match Out: ASX remains anchored to 8800

Another session where the ASX was hit early before buyers stepped in, with the index recovering around 60 points from its two-week low to finish marginally higher. Technology and gold stocks led the rebound as investors bought the dip following recent weakness, while softer oil prices helped ease some concerns around inflation and the outlook for US interest rates. Brent crude eased below US$89/barrel after rising almost 6% over the previous two sessions, while gold recovered toward US$4,050/oz. The improvement in offshore technology sentiment also helped, with US futures turning higher and Asian chip stocks rebounding after the sharp sell-off triggered by concerns around Moonshot’s Kimi K3 model.

Morning report 21/07/2026

What Matters Today: Has Lithium bottomed? Why we’re reconsidering our bearish stance.

The lithium trade has lost its mojo in the last few months, but we believe the demand side of the equation remains healthy for lithium as battery energy storage emerges as a 2nd pillar of lithium demand alongside EVs, driven by AI data centres and rising global investment in storage. As we flagged in June, lithium supply is continuing to grow, with analysts divided on when the market will return to deficit—some expect 2026–27, while others don't see it until 2030. At MM, we remain bullish on the long-term structural drivers supporting spodumene and believe prices can ultimately move well above their 2026 highs. However, after the sector's strong gains over the past 12 months, this current pullback is understandable.