18/09/2025 09:53

Treasury Wine Estate (TWE) $7.52

We discussed TWE at length when it first approached $8, a few months later, and the stock looks capable of testing $7. The stock is trading on 12.2x FY26, over 40% below its usual valuation, but the company is stuck in a downgrade cycle and has lost investor confidence. The geopolitical and economic backdrop remains a concern, but the stock is already baking in plenty of bad news around $7.50. We are not considering TWE yet, but it's worth monitoring for catalysts to address its “cheap” price tag.

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28/05/2025 09:38

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE) $8.22

TWE plumbed levels not seen since 2020 on Tuesday after the company announced its current CEO will depart in September to be replaced by the very experienced Sam Fischer.

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12/03/2025 09:51

Active Growth Portfolio – Amendments

We are making several changes to the Active Growth Portfolio.

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13/02/2025 16:52

Treasury Wines (TWE) $10.51

TWE –5.74%: 1H25 results for the wine business underwhelmed today, though we came off the conference call with the view there was more positive trends playing out than the numbers implied 

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28/11/2024 09:55

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE) $11.55

Over recent months, we’ve described TWE as a potential funding (switch) vehicle due to its ongoing rigor mortis.

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12/11/2024 09:30

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE) $11.30

Unfortunately, not our worst-performing stock in the MM Growth portfolio but it keeps disappointing and it's potentially in the crosshairs of Trump tariffs.  After crippling Chinese tariffs in 2020, TWE reinvented itself with over 50% of revenue now coming from the Americas and it’s now potentially walked into Tariffs – Mark 2

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05/11/2024 09:30

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE) $11.30

Wine business TWE keeps threatening to break out only to fail, and we cannot ignore the fact that it has traded sideways for the last 3-4 years, posing the following question: Could we deploy our funds better elsewhere? We will wait to see how TWE digests the US election outcome and subsequent interpretation of likely tariffs, or not, towards China

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04/10/2024 09:22

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE) $12.05

TWE has suffered at the hands of Chinese tariffs over recent years, but these have now been lifted, and a Trump victory would likely see them redirected towards US wine producers. Unfortunately, from TWE’s perspective, less than 5% of Chinese wine imports come from the US, but it all helps. However, the US has become an increasingly important market for TWE, and they're now likely to be on the receiving end of 10% tariffs by Trump if he wins, depending on his mood that day, fortunately not too significant a headwind

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15/08/2024 17:01

Treasury Wines (TWE) $12.35

TWE +2%: Solid result for TWE, pretty much inline with expectations with their US business outperforming.

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05/06/2024 16:41

Treasury Wines (TWE) $11.99

TWE +5.27%: the wine producer and distributor is hosting an investor day at their newly acquired DAOU site in Pao Robles, California, hoping to alleviate some concerns that have followed the $US900m acquisition. In the detail, the company reaffirmed FY24 guidance of mid to high single-digit EBITS growth, broadly in line with consensus expectations of ~6.5% growth.

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