Morning Report Monday 21 December 2015
It's now or never for the Santa Rally!Good morning everyone and welcome to ‘Christmas Week’OverviewThe press is finally saying "the Santa rally is not going to happen in 2015", the perfect read for those still having faith.Market matters have repeatedly pointed out that the December highs for the ASX200 since the GFC have been on the 31st, 23rd, 12th, 28th, 31st and 30th respectively i.e. generally very late in the month. The simple average of the last 6 years is the 26th which is still a few days away and the mode (most common occurring date) is the ~30th. Hence, statistically, the average top for December since the GFC is still ~5-10 days away.Turning to the MarketsSo far, this December’s top was on the 1st at 5279, over 3% above Friday’s close and today we have to deal with a 367-point plunge from the Dow last Friday. We have repeatedly focused on the dates for the(post GFC) December highs but let's now focus on how far the ASX200 rallied into these highs when they occurred after Christmas.
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