Australian Investment Blog

Good morning everyoneOverviewA number of people questioned Market Matters’ prediction for a strong late Christmas rally BUT today the futures are predicting the ASX200 will open over 5300, a fresh high for December! The Dow has closed up 192 points and the local SPI futures are calling the ASX200 to open ~5310, that's an 8.1% rally in 9 days!Turning to The MarketsAs has been discussed, the dates of the December highs since the GFC are 31st, 23rd, 12th, 28th, 31st and 30th so it's going to be another 30th or 31st for 2015 - see charts 1a & 1b.When statistics are this correlated they should not be ignored; it's a shame that January is more random.Looking at the US, the S&P500 is now less than 3% below both its all-time and 2015 high - see charts 2a & 2b. Market Matters believes the US market will see one final high in coming weeks before entering a significant correction phase.The intention is to keep reports short over the Christmas break updating the above theme BUT you can never assume anything with stock markets!