The Match Out: ASX falls as September hike bets firm at 93%, Soul Patts hits record high

Afternoon report 24/09/2026 17:10

The Match Out: ASX falls as September hike bets firm at 93%, Soul Patts hits record high

The ASX endured another difficult session today, and while the index encouragingly bounced ~60pts from the lows of the session after softer employment data partially pared back rate hike bets, a move higher in the cash rate remains almost fully priced in for next week’s RBA meeting.

Morning report 24/09/2026 09:42

What Matters Today: Five ‘recovery stocks’ we like if the ASX enjoys a Christmas rally!

The ASX 200 battled to a 0.1% gain on Wednesday, with BHP alone contributing about twice the index’s overall advance from a points perspective, masking underlying weakness in financials. At the stock and sector level, it was almost as if the market had tuned into yesterday’s MM webinar, “Investing in a 5% World,” with investors voting with their feet and compressing the valuations of long-duration growth stocks as bond yields remained elevated.

Afternoon report 23/09/2026 17:13

The Match Out: ASX flat as copper hits record highs and banks soften; A2M surges on Mattera acquisition

The ASX finished little changed on Wednesday as weakness across utilities, energy and the banks was offset by a strong session in the lithium and copper names as copper hit a record US$6.92/lb overnight, providing a strong backdrop for the resources sector. M&A continues to be a dominant driver for single-stock moves, though the broader market remained largely macro-driven, balancing stronger commodity prices against ongoing concerns around higher rates.

Alerts 23/09/2026 14:44

Trade Alert – International Equities Portfolio

We are adding a new position to the International Equities Portfolio

Morning report 23/09/2026 09:12

Portfolio Positioning: The ASX 200 is looking for, or has found, a low

The ASX 200 experienced a choppy session on Tuesday before eventually closing up +0.3%, taking the index into positive territory for the week. The miners contributed more than 50% of the day's advance, but it was a relatively quiet affair considering the impressive gains in Europe and the US overnight. The tug of war at the pointy end of the market remains fairly evenly balanced, with investors only prepared to buy either the banks or miners on a day-to-day basis, appearing to use the other to fund the purchases.

Afternoon report 22/09/2026 16:37

The Match Out: Tech leads, but the ASX gives back early gains

The ASX 200 finished modestly higher today, but the headline gain masks another fairly mixed session. The index jumped ~50 points at the open following a strong lead from Wall Street and renewed enthusiasm around the AI trade and a drop in Oil prices, before handing back some of those gains as the day progressed.

Morning report 22/09/2026 09:23

What Matters Today: Is it time for the Consumer Staples contrarian trade?

The ASX 200 recovered well from an early 0.6% dip to close flat on Monday, with 45% of the main board managing to advance. Gains by the banks cancelled out losses by the miners, leaving the index evenly balanced into the close. Australian tech stocks, which are primarily software names, continued to underperform, falling 1.6% and extending their decline in 2026 to more than 25%. To put the disappointing performance into perspective, the US software sector is marginally higher for the year.

Afternoon report 21/09/2026 16:37

The Match Out: ASX holds its nerve as tech keeps bleeding; Perpetual rejects EQT’s best-and-final

The ASX started the week on the back foot but managed to claw back most of the early losses, finishing essentially flat after a 40pts of weakness to begin proceedings. The key driver continues to be the domestic rate outlook, with both Commonwealth Bank and ANZ shifting their view and calling a 25bp RBA hike to 4.60% next week, with credit markets now fully pricing that in.

Morning report 21/09/2026 09:31

Macro Monday: The ASX 200 is following the 2022 roadmap into October

Last week saw the ASX 200 extend its September pullback to -3.8%, taking the total decline from August’s all-time high to almost -7%. The chart below highlights the uncanny similarities with 2022, when the RBA began aggressively tightening monetary policy, and Australia’s 10-year bond yield surged from around 1.5% to 4%, weighing on equity valuations. We’ve been watching with growing interest as the index continues to track the path of 2022’s “bond tantrum” remarkably closely - rising bond yields are the common denominator in both years.

Weekend report 19/09/2026 09:10

Weekend Q&A: Rising bond yields continue to weigh on the ASX

The ASX 200 slipped 0.1% last week, its 3rd consecutive weekly decline, but a welcome relief from the aggressive selling earlier in the month. With the Fed rate hike behind us, attention switched to the RBA on the 29th as rising bond yields continue to weigh on risk assets. We anticipate further weakness in the coming week (s), but the index is slowly gaining an air of a market “looking for a low.”