UBS Group (UBS)

24/03/2026

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Afternoon report 04/05/2026

The Match Out: Cautious ASX slips ahead of tomorrow’s RBA call

The ASX gave back some of Friday’s bounce today, drifting lower as softer local updates outweighed ongoing strength in US equities. Breadth was soft through the session with Staples and Financials leading the declines as the index whipsawed early in the session before cruising lower into the close.

Morning report 04/05/2026

Macro Monday: ASX Faces RBA Decision and Federal Budget in Critical Two-Week Window

The RBA is expected to lift rates by another 0.25% on Tuesday, taking the cash rate to 4.35%, fully reversing the 0.75% of easing delivered through 2025. Credit markets are also pricing in at least one, and potentially two, additional hikes over the next 12 months, leaving mortgage holders facing the highest borrowing costs in over a decade. It's no surprise that rate-sensitive sectors are under pressure—real estate and retail are down ~10% and ~14% respectively in 2026, while the ASX 200 has managed to eke out a modest gain.