Crude Oil ($US/barrel)

OPEC has agreed to higher oil output for the third month in a row, despite reservations from key member Russia, which is a doubling down on a historic policy shift that has sent crude prices lower. However, the surprise factor has now gone and with the latest hike matching increases for May and June, which initially was a radical reversal from defending prices to actively driving them lower. Officials say the supply hikes reflect Saudi Arabia’s desire to punish over-producing members like Kazakhstan and Iraq, recoup market share lost to US shale drillers and other rivals, and satisfy President Donald Trump’s desire for cheaper oil.

• We see oil finding increasing support in the $US60 area, although the big players want it lower at least in the short term.