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15/11/2024

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Morning report 04/05/2026

Macro Monday: ASX Faces RBA Decision and Federal Budget in Critical Two-Week Window

The RBA is expected to lift rates by another 0.25% on Tuesday, taking the cash rate to 4.35%, fully reversing the 0.75% of easing delivered through 2025. Credit markets are also pricing in at least one, and potentially two, additional hikes over the next 12 months, leaving mortgage holders facing the highest borrowing costs in over a decade. It's no surprise that rate-sensitive sectors are under pressure—real estate and retail are down ~10% and ~14% respectively in 2026, while the ASX 200 has managed to eke out a modest gain.

Weekend report 02/05/2026

Weekend Q&A: ASX starts May on the front foot

The ASX200 ended its 8-day losing streak on Friday with a solid +0.7% advance, although it promised more early on before the “Big Four Banks” reversed lower. It felt worse, but come the closing bell on Friday, the index was only down 0.6% for the week, although compared to the strong gains in the US, it was a clear disappointment. It was the big end of town that reined in the market last week, with the banks and heavyweight miners retreating. Next Wednesday, we see the RBA step up on interest rates, with credit markets pricing in a ~74% probability of a 0.25% hike, while on the following Tuesday, we will receive the Federal Budget- there’s no rest for the wicked in May!