US 2-year Bond Yields v Fed Funds Rate

06/05/2024

US 2-year Bond Yields v Fed Funds Rate

Latest Reports

Afternoon report 21/09/2026

The Match Out: ASX holds its nerve as tech keeps bleeding; Perpetual rejects EQT’s best-and-final

The ASX started the week on the back foot but managed to claw back most of the early losses, finishing essentially flat after a 40pts of weakness to begin proceedings. The key driver continues to be the domestic rate outlook, with both Commonwealth Bank and ANZ shifting their view and calling a 25bp RBA hike to 4.60% next week, with credit markets now fully pricing that in.

Morning report 21/09/2026

Macro Monday: The ASX 200 is following the 2022 roadmap into October

Last week saw the ASX 200 extend its September pullback to -3.8%, taking the total decline from August’s all-time high to almost -7%. The chart below highlights the uncanny similarities with 2022, when the RBA began aggressively tightening monetary policy, and Australia’s 10-year bond yield surged from around 1.5% to 4%, weighing on equity valuations. We’ve been watching with growing interest as the index continues to track the path of 2022’s “bond tantrum” remarkably closely - rising bond yields are the common denominator in both years.