US 10-year Bond Yield
US retail sales data tumbled by the most in nearly two years in January, reflecting harsher winter weather and the impact of the ferocious wildfires in Los Angeles.
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Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
No consensus estimates are available for this company.
Financials (AUD, millions)
Financial statements are not available for this company yet.
Announcements
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US retail sales data tumbled by the most in nearly two years in January, reflecting harsher winter weather and the impact of the ferocious wildfires in Los Angeles.
US bonds are waiting on the US inflation data and Fed testimony later this week. Still, the foundations have already been laid for a cautious, less dovish stance until the outlook under Trump becomes clear.
The recent panic to the safety of bonds has seen yields fall as we have discussed at length through recent reports. While we can see some short-term consolidation as calm returns to financial markets with last night’s weaker than expected inflation read adding confidence to our view that bonds will ultimately track higher into 2024 i.e. yields lower.
We started to fade bond yields a touch too early across our portfolios but things have slowly started to move in our direction and last night’s market friendly US inflation print has reinforced our view that bonds go higher/yields lower into 2023 i.e. overnight US 2-year yields fell 0.15% to close at 4.22%. While the Feds still lurking in the wings this week we believe it’s time to squeeze the crowded short bond trade.
The MM Global Macro ETF Portfolio fell -3.3% last week while enjoying small gains by the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA US) +0.4% and the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (CAD) +0.4% who were both helped by the strong $US whereas the BetaShares Strong Australian Dollar (AUDS) -7.8% and BetaShares Global Gold Miners ETF (MNRS) -6.6% led the declines.
The MM Global Macro ETF Portfolio slipped -0.78% last week enjoying strong gains by the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA US) +3.6%, while the ETFS Battery & Lithium ETF (ACDC) also added +0.2%, on the other side of the ledger the BetaShares strong Australian Dollar ETF (AUDS) -4.7% and BetaShares Asia Technology Tigers ETF (ASIA) -3.3% weighed on the portfolio.
The weakness in the Bonds, as yields rise, and strength in the USDYPY as the Yen plumbs fresh 24-year lows couldn’t be more pronounced but we believe both moves are maturing extremely fast i.e. its hard to imagine the news around interest rates & inflation deteriorating further in 2022. These are both major macro moves that MM has been discussing for months...
The MM Global Macro ETF Portfolio rallied +3.2% last week enjoying strong gains by the ETFS Battery Tech & Lithium ETF (ACDC) +7.2% and the Global X Copper ETF (COPX US) while our Physical Uranium Trust (U-U CN) -0.5% was the only position to fall.
Clearly, this position would be against the strong trend of the last 9-months hence we have no interest in playing our view via an aggressive leveraged ETF plus we are remaining fussy towards our entry-level. We like the ASX traded BetaShares GGOV ETF as a bullish vehicle for exposure to longer-dated US bonds e.g. it bounced +11.5% from its June low as US 10-year bond yields pulled back from 3.5% towards 2.5% illustrating its lack of leverage, if we are correct...
MM prefers Australian bonds over their US peers
MM is bullish towards US 10s (yields lower)
MM remains bullish towards US and local 10-year bonds – yields lower
There are some signs that bond yields are at or near a peak
We are cautiously bullish/neutral towards US bonds (yields lower)
We are cautiously bullish/neutral towards bonds (yields lower)
MM is cautiously bullish towards US 30-year bonds (yields lower)
MM is cautiously bullish towards US 30-year bonds (yields lower)
We can see the Fed slowly unwinding the “bear steepener’ into 2027
MM is neutral towards US 30-year bonds
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